Signing a player who has rejected a qualifying offer (QO) comes at a cost, especially for a team like the New York Mets, with high payroll penalties in play. The question is: who among these free agents is worth the hit?
This offseason, all but Nick Martinez turned down the QO, including the three Mets players offered one: Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino. Rejection of the QO is common among top-tier free agents, so this outcome isn’t surprising.
The Cost for the Mets
Given the Mets’ payroll, signing even one player who declined the QO comes with steep penalties. The team would lose its second- and fifth-highest draft picks, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money. Adding a second QO player would further cost them their third- and sixth-highest picks.
However, if Alonso, Manaea, or Severino were to sign elsewhere, the Mets would receive compensatory draft picks, albeit after the fourth round. This creates a strategic dilemma: forego these compensatory picks to land a marquee player or focus on retaining draft capital.
Evaluating the Free Agents
Instead of breaking down every QO-declining player, let’s categorize them:
- Worth the penalty
- Not worth the penalty
- Potential combinations that justify sacrificing next year’s draft picks.
Top Targets: Who’s Worth the QO Penalty?
Here are the top-tier players worth considering, ranked by their value:
- Juan Soto
- Corbin Burnes
- Alex Bregman
- Christian Walker
- Max Fried
These players are elite talents who could make a significant impact on the Mets. Anyone outside this group may not justify the draft and financial penalties involved.
Key Scenarios to Watch
- Juan Soto: The crown jewel of the free-agent market, Soto would elevate any lineup. His offensive prowess makes him the top priority.
- Corbin Burnes: Arguably the best free-agent pitcher available, Burnes is a game-changer for any rotation.
- Max Fried: Despite his talent, Fried’s injury history could give teams pause, but his upside is undeniable.
- Alex Bregman & Christian Walker: Both are excellent players, but their value to the Mets is less clear. Retaining Pete Alonso may be a more straightforward solution than pursuing Bregman, for instance, which would shift Mark Vientos from third base.
The Strategy: Keep Draft Picks or Spend Big?
The Mets are unlikely to bring back both Manaea and Severino, meaning they’ll likely add at least one compensatory pick to their draft pool. This gives them some flexibility to pursue a top-tier free agent without devastating their future.
Notably, Blake Snell, who comes without a QO penalty, presents an alternative for teams seeking an ace. While Burnes may be the more desirable option, Snell’s availability without draft pick losses could make him an appealing choice.
Ultimately, the Mets need to weigh their options carefully. While players like Soto and Burnes may justify the penalties, targeting non-QO free agents or re-signing Pete Alonso could provide a more efficient path forward.
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