Who will claim victory in the Women’s IRONMAN World Championship this Sunday in Nice, France? That’s the question we’re exploring as we analyze the leading contenders for the top spot on the scenic French Riviera.
Looking back to last year’s 2023 IRONMAN World Championship in Kona, there was a clear “super seven” vying for the top spots. After the race, it was impressive to see how well that group of favorites performed under pressure, with six of them filling the podium positions.
Fast forward to 2024 and a new location, and the dynamic is different. With Daniela Ryf having retired and Taylor Knibb not participating, the field has shifted. This year, it could very well be a showdown between Great Britain and Germany, with a smaller pool of clear favorites.
Here are the top contenders for the win:
Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR)
When discussing the frontrunners, it’s only natural to start with the defending champion. After securing her title in Kona last year in record time, Lucy Charles-Barclay (LCB) has firmly established herself as a top contender in the IRONMAN World Championship. Between 2017 and 2023, she finished second four times before clinching her victory, demonstrating exceptional consistency at the highest level.
While Nice is a different challenge from Kona, Lucy is no stranger to the French Riviera. She placed fifth at the 2019 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship and completed her validation race at IRONMAN France this June to secure her spot for this weekend.
As one of the best swimmers in the sport, the ocean swim is likely to play to her strengths, potentially giving her a significant early lead. The hilly terrain of Lanzarote, where she has spent years training, should also provide a solid foundation for handling the challenging climbs around the Alps Maritime on the bike.
Is LCB the favorite to win? While she certainly has strong credentials, it’s not a foregone conclusion. There are two key factors to consider. First, at the beginning of 2024, her focus was explicitly on the PTO’s T100 Tour, and she initially had no plans to race in Nice. The decision to shift her objectives came in early June. The question is whether this change of plans allowed enough time to fully prepare for the longer IRONMAN format. With so many race options available, finding the right balance of events is crucial.
The second factor is injury management. Lucy’s remarkable victory in Hawaii last year came despite her running with a torn calf, and she’s had to manage this injury throughout the year. She ran well at IRONMAN France but withdrew from T100 London as a precaution due to Achilles pain.
Whatever the outcome, we hope injury does not play a role in the final result for LCB or any other competitor.
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