The Seminoles’ 24-21 defeat to Georgia Tech on Saturday caused a shakeup in the FPI rankings, allowing Miami to climb ahead in the projections. Clemson is currently the top contender with a 23.2% chance of securing the ACC title, according to the FPI. Miami, now in third place, has a 10.6% chance of winning the conference.

Louisville holds the second spot with a 14.0% chance, while Florida State has dropped from first to fourth place, now holding a 9.5% chance to win the ACC. Prior to their loss to Georgia Tech, Florida State was leading with a 26.2% chance in June, while Miami’s chances were at 9.9%. The Seminoles are scheduled to face both Clemson and Miami in 2024, but they won’t be playing Louisville.

Georgia Tech’s upset victory also impacted the rankings, propelling them from 12th to 8th place in the FPI’s ACC title projections. Clemson, Louisville, and Miami have all benefited from Florida State’s loss, with several other teams seeing slight boosts in their chances to win the ACC. Georgia Tech, for instance, improved from a 1.0% to a 7.9% chance of winning the conference.

The FSU loss has also affected the anticipated outcome of their matchup against Miami. Previously, Miami was projected with a 43.0% chance to beat Florida State; that figure has now risen to 47.4%, making the game nearly a toss-up.

Georgia Tech’s win highlighted vulnerabilities in Florida State’s game and has intensified the competition for a spot in the ACC Championship game in Charlotte on December 7. Miami’s upcoming game against Georgia Tech has now gained greater significance, with Georgia Tech being projected to have a 52.0% chance to defeat Miami.