Three of the eight remaining contenders in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship face notably longer odds than their competitors.
With only one race left in the playoff schedule before the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, two of the four available spots are still undecided. The Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway, a 500-lap race on a 0.26-mile oval, will determine at least one Championship 4 spot based on points. If a driver who hasn’t yet secured a spot wins, then two spots will be awarded based on points.
Joey Logano of Team Penske and Tyler Reddick of 23XI Racing have already secured their Championship 4 spots by winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway, respectively. Christopher Bell of Joe Gibbs Racing leads in points, 22 ahead of Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron, who is just seven points above the cut-off line ahead of teammate Kyle Larson.
Logano, Reddick, and Bell are the current favorites for the title, each with +340 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Larson and Byron, expected to battle for points, are listed at +600 and +750, respectively.
The other three contenders are considered longshots. Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing sits 18 points below the cut-off line with +2200 odds. Ryan Blaney of Team Penske, 38 points below and likely needing a win, has +2500 odds. Chase Elliott of Hendrick Motorsports, 43 points behind and also in a must-win position, is at +4000.
These three drivers, however, have strong records at Martinsville. Hamlin has won five times at the Virginia track. Last year, Blaney secured a win at Martinsville to qualify for the Championship 4, ultimately winning the title. Elliott similarly triumphed in a must-win race at Martinsville in 2020 and went on to claim the championship.
Blaney’s odds last year were +3400 during the round of 8, illustrating that surprises are possible. Notably, Hamlin, Blaney, and Elliott rank among the top four in odds to win the upcoming race, which would secure them a Championship 4 spot and likely shift their championship odds to between +250 and +400.
Currently, Hamlin and Larson are co-favorites to win at +500, with Blaney close behind at +550. Elliott is at +850, following his third-place finish at the track in April, part of a Hendrick Motorsports 1-2-3 sweep. Byron, the April winner, is at +1000, and Bell at +1300. Meanwhile, Logano and Reddick, focusing more on Phoenix, have longer odds at +2000 and +2600, respectively.
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