This familiar refrain for Stars fans states that the team still needs help for Miro Heiskanen, they’re missing a right-handed defenseman, and their top four defenders aren’t strong enough. We’ve heard this before. Briefly, hopes were raised when Jim Nill acquired Chris Tanev at last season’s trade deadline, managing to do so without sacrificing a first-round pick. However, the offseason saw Tanev signing a massive six-year contract with Toronto, leaving Dallas’s defense depleted. The team then turned to the market for blueline upgrades, targeting players like Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin.
And that was all they did. Not only did they focus on these two, but Nill also added Brenden Smith and brought back Nils Lundkvist, who had been under scrutiny. How does this improve a team that has exited the Western Conference finals for two consecutive seasons? How can the Stars hope to compete with a blueline that feels like it has regressed to the starting point, when their main defensive issue was the limited pair of Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa?
Earlier this month, I took a broader look at the roster to address this question. To summarize, Dallas enters the season with two seemingly contradictory elements: a worsened blueline but an improved roster. This isn’t a continuation of that analysis, but it’s worth revisiting to keep perspective. The Stars have been defensively strong for several years, going back to Jim Montgomery’s tenure. They’ve improved over the years, mainly anchored by the Norris candidate Heiskanen, along with solid contributions from Lindell and new energy from Thomas Harley. It’s important to remember that the Stars reached the Western Conference final in 2023 without Tanev.
In fact, during the six seasons of the Heiskanen era, Dallas ranks third in expected goals against, just behind the Boston Bruins. They’ve managed this largely with the same strategies they employed this offseason: creativity and resourcefulness. Regardless of your opinion on Dumba, can you argue that he’s a downgrade from Roman Polak, who was the fourth most-used defender in 2018? Is the current defensive lineup inferior to the 2020 group, which included a declining John Klingberg and Andrej Sekera? Or compared to 2022, when Ryan Suter was logging 23 minutes a night, almost matching Heiskanen?
The loss of Tanev shouldn’t be underestimated, as the Stars’ performance with him was noticeably better. In his 18 games with the team, they improved from 2.48 to 2.31 goals against per 60 minutes at even strength, with an enhancement in expected goals against as well. Tanev was indeed a valuable asset. However, his presence isn’t the only way to win.
Let’s explore this. Given the Stars’ near success over the past two seasons, I compared their defensive metrics—goals against per 60 at even strength and expected goals against—in the postseason to the playoff league averages post-Covid, and to the defensive profiles of other conference finalists like Florida, Vegas, and Edmonton. I chose these teams due to their recent success and, in Edmonton’s case, their role as Dallas’s barrier to the final round.
According to data from Evolving-Hockey, Dallas’ rivals have been below average in expected goals against, while Dallas has maintained an above-average performance under Pete DeBoer. The 2023 Vegas team, which won the Cup, ranked 21st out of 48 playoff teams in shot quality allowed per game. In contrast, both of DeBoer’s Dallas teams ranked higher than that year’s Cup winners (Florida with 2.35 expected goals against compared to Dallas’ 2.23 and 2.27).
This leads to an important question: is Dallas’s blueline better than it was before Tanev joined last season? I believe so. The connection between DeBoer and Nill is crucial here. If the plan is to have someone like Dumba replace Tanev, then this offseason was a failure.
However, I doubt that’s the plan. I think Dumba is replacing Suter, which would be an upgrade considering how much better he is at preventing the puck from entering the defensive zone. I also suspect Lyubushkin is taking over for Hakanpaa, which is a fair trade since they are quite similar in transition. And then there’s the biggest guess: I believe the Stars hope Lian Bichsel will eventually fill Tanev’s role. Drafting a player 18th overall indicates they expect more than just minimal minutes from him, and Bichsel has given Dallas no reason to doubt his capability for a larger role. He was impressive last season across various leagues.
Even if the Stars don’t plan to use Bichsel like they did with Harley last year, there are other ways to optimize this defense-by-committee approach. At the very least, it would be beneficial to have Heiskanen back on his strong side, likely paired with Dumba on the right and Lyubushkin (who averaged 17 minutes per game in Toronto, mainly alongside the excellent Morgan Reilly) with Harley, who still hasn’t reached his full potential.
It’s easy to get bogged down in details, even before addressing what the team intends to do with Lundkvist. However, considering Dallas’s defensive effectiveness under DeBoer, it’s clear that the blueline won’t need to be the game-winner, nor should it be. Florida succeeded with players like Branton Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, plus a tough prospect in Niko Mikkola. The Oilers reached Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final despite the Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci pair being a liability. I don’t agree with the notion that “defense wins championships” because successful teams aren’t one-dimensional. But even if we accept that point, isn’t it more accurate to say that team defense wins championships? If so, why can’t Dallas succeed with a defensive setup similar to Florida’s?
Ultimately, Dallas needs its blueline to support its real strength: the offense. The Stars didn’t lose the Edmonton series due to poor defense. They lost because Roope Hintz was injured; because their power play faltered at crucial moments; because they were 13th out of 16 playoff teams in even-strength shots on goal per game; because Jake Oettinger was outperformed by Stuart Skinner; and because Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski didn’t deliver.
The blueline doesn’t need saviors; it needs chemistry to support the real stars like Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Logan Stankoven. Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Smith don’t need to be heroes; they need to be reliable. If they can perform consistently, it might not matter how flawed they are as long as they clear a path for everyone else.
Leave a Reply