The Toronto Maple Leafs’ decision to re-sign William Nylander to a contract extension last year is now under scrutiny. Nylander signed an eight-year extension worth $11.5 million AAV, making him one of the highest-paid players in the NHL. However, there are concerns that the Maple Leafs may have invested in the wrong player.
Despite the long-term deal, Mitch Marner is considered by many to be superior to Nylander. Marner boasts similar scoring abilities, better hands, greater awareness, and elite defensive skills. Although Nylander has become a two-time 40-goal scorer and finished with 13 more points than Marner last year, a deeper look into the statistics shows Marner’s broader impact on the game.
Nylander is more durable, rarely missing games, but Marner’s 2021-22 season, where he scored 35 goals and 97 points in 72 games, stands out as statistically better than any season Nylander has had. If extrapolated to a full season, Marner’s performance would translate to a 40-goal, 110-point season. Marner’s role in the first penalty-kill unit and his scoring against top defensive units further highlight his value.
Critics argue that the Maple Leafs should never have signed Nylander to such a lucrative deal. Comparisons to Phil Kessel suggest Nylander is a strong player but not one who can lead a team alone. In contrast, Marner is likened to Patrick Kane, a player capable of carrying a team to success.
The $11.5 million AAV commitment to Nylander complicates the Leafs’ ability to build around him, making a trade for Marner seem plausible to acquire free agents or make significant roster upgrades. The Leafs were better positioned to win while Nylander was earning $6.9 million, but his new contract limits their flexibility.
Auston Matthews and Marner are viewed as the core forwards to build around, and the decision to re-sign Nylander is seen as a misstep. The Leafs could have let Nylander walk or traded him to bolster their defense, goaltending, or depth. Nylander’s contract is now considered one of the worst in hockey, especially when compared to Sam Reinhart’s $8.5 million deal after scoring 57 goals last year.
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