The Uncommon Advantage: Why Martin Necas Could Receive an Offer Sheet and How It Benefits the Hurricanes…

Why Martin Necas Might Receive an Offer Sheet: An Uncommon but Beneficial Scenario for the Canes

These are intriguing times for the Carolina Hurricanes, who are dealing with multiple free agents. One notable concern ahead of the upcoming draft is Martin Necas.

If you’re already familiar with restricted free agency and the Canes’ history with offer sheets, feel free to skip ahead.

Martin Necas has reached the end of his contract and is now a Restricted Free Agent (RFA). It’s well-known that he’s unhappy with his role in the team, and the Hurricanes recognize his talent but doubt he fits their system. This isn’t uncommon and is not necessarily a reflection on the player or coach. Necas’s frustration partly stems from how the organization managed his early career, keeping him in lower leagues longer than necessary to maintain team control.

With Necas being arbitration eligible, a good reminder that once arbitration is filed players can no longer sign offer sheets. #CauseChaos could file for team elected arbitration, which has to be done prior to July 1st. Coincidentally, July 1st is the 1st day offer sheets can be… https://t.co/GDn768mL1k

— AFP Analytics (@AFPAnalytics) June 21, 2024

The RFA process grants the Hurricanes substantial control. An RFA can sign with any team, but the original team can match the offer. If they don’t, they receive draft picks as compensation. The Canes have been involved in such scenarios before: Montreal offer-sheeted Sebastian Aho in 2019 (which the Canes matched), and the Canes offer-sheeted Jesperi Kotkaniemi in 2021 (which Montreal didn’t match, resulting in a first-round pick for Montreal).

To retain this control, the Hurricanes need to make a qualifying offer to Necas, which would be $3.5 million per year—a deal they would gladly accept. This control is why there’s talk of trading Necas before free agency begins on July 1. The Canes are seeking a trade for a player of similar skill who better fits their system.

If Carolina files for salary arbitration during the first club-elected salary arbitration window, which starts 48 hours after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup final, Necas can still sign an offer sheet until July 5th.

— Rand Simon (@rls0867) June 21, 2024

Necas is also eligible for arbitration, a process where a third party resolves contract disputes. Typically, this discourages trades until a deal is signed, and often a deal is reached before arbitration to avoid conflict. If Necas prefers to leave Carolina quickly, he might avoid arbitration despite the possibility of a slight raise for one year, returning to the same situation next offseason.

With the NHL Draft approaching, there’s pressure to finalize a deal before free agency starts. However, the Hurricanes have considerable leverage—they control Necas’s rights completely before free agency and still have significant control after it begins. They recognize Necas’s talent and would prefer to keep him at a reduced price for another season, giving him a chance to prove he deserves a bigger contract.

Because of this, the Canes are demanding a high-level player in trade talks, as draft picks are less useful to them at this stage. Although they have received several offers, none have been compelling enough yet, though activity is expected to increase soon.

If no suitable trade materializes, an offer sheet could be an advantageous outcome for the Hurricanes. They’re seeking a player of Necas’s caliber, which is hard to obtain from rebuilding teams that prefer trading draft picks. Only teams in strong playoff positions might offer such talent, and even they might hesitate.

The Canes could benefit from an offer sheet because they’d either retain Necas at a reasonable rate or receive significant compensation. For example, if another team offers up to $6.87 million AAV, the Canes would get a first and third-round pick. For offers above that, they’d receive a first, second, and third-round pick, which could facilitate trades with teams needing a rebuild, like Columbus, Montreal, Minnesota, Calgary, and Ottawa, or even Boston, which might be starting a rebuild.

Since the Hurricanes are open to this process, it might encourage other teams to break the usual unwritten rule against offer sheets, potentially easing Necas’s departure and providing the Canes with valuable assets.

This situation is one to watch closely. If Necas isn’t traded by next week, an offer sheet seems increasingly likely, potentially leading to significant changes for the Hurricanes next season.