Part 1 – The Draft and My Pick.
The results were surprising. Atlanta, with a slim 3% chance, won the NBA draft lottery, followed by the Wizards. More relevantly for the Rockets, their pick, originally Brooklyn’s pre-James Harden trade, was expected to be #9 but ended up as #3.
This draft is widely criticized for lacking players with complete skill sets appropriate for their age and draft position. Many older collegiate players are projected to be drafted higher than usual. Several international prospects have desirable attributes but are deficient in key areas like shooting, defense, or dribbling. Many players are good defenders but struggle to shoot.
Despite a resurgence in physical play in the NBA, the Conference Finals teams excel in shooting. Dallas, for example, supports Luka with defenders who can create open looks, similar to how the Rockets supported peak James Harden.
I argue that scoring is the most crucial stat associated with winning. Teams like the Pacers stay competitive by scoring easily, while others succeed with tough scoring under pressure, like Jalen Brunson or Anthony Edwards.
There is a player in this draft who combines good shooting, passing, and effective defense, coming from a program known for producing great players: Reed Sheppard, guard from Kentucky.
Analyzing Sheppard, the main critique seems to be based on biased perceptions about his appearance and athleticism. If he were an international player with a different name, he might be viewed more favorably.
Critiques about his athleticism are unfounded. He jumped higher than anyone at the NBA draft combine, despite claims that this can be manipulated. True athleticism should be about applying it in-game, like players such as Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, who aren’t traditionally athletic but excel.
The Rockets already have freak athletes like Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason. A combo guard doesn’t need to be another super athlete.
Critics also say Sheppard is small, but at just under 6’3” without shoes, he’s fine for a guard. The Rockets have good size overall, and for a combo guard, the ability to shoot, pass, and defend is more crucial.
Sheppard is an exceptional shooter, hitting 52% from three on 4.4 attempts per game, the sixth highest percentage since 1992 and third for a power school. His 83% free throw percentage supports the sustainability of his shooting skills. Comparatively, Steph Curry shot 41% from three in college.
Sheppard isn’t just a shooter; he averaged 8.5 assists against 3.7 turnovers per 40 minutes and had an impressive 3.4 steals per 40, a stat correlating well with NBA defensive success. He’s not an older prospect, turning 20 in late June.
Analytically, there’s much to love about Sheppard. His frame suggests he will continue to fill out. The Rockets need backup point guard play and shooting, and Sheppard fits the bill with his potential as a scorer with decent defense.
If available, the Rockets should draft Reed Sheppard.
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