With Craig Berube set to become the head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Winnipeg Jets’ search for Rick Bowness’ replacement narrows. Berube’s widely speculated move leaves options like Scott Arniel and Dean Evanson, among others, still in consideration for Winnipeg.
Beyond the coaching hunt, the Jets have critical defensive decisions ahead this offseason. Assessing each player’s contributions is essential, so we delve into their regular-season statistics using MoneyPuck data, focusing on 5-on-5 situations for a balanced view.
**Statistical Overview**
We examine several key metrics:
– **Corsi**: Percentage of shot attempts while the player is on the ice.
– **Fenwick**: Percentage of unblocked shot attempts.
– **xG%**: Expected goals percentage.
– **T-G DIFF**: Takeaway-Giveaway difference.
– **HDSCA/60**: High Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes.
– **GDIFF**: Goal Differential.
– **xGDIFF**: Expected Goal Differential.
**Team Performance**
Winnipeg’s defense showed promising regular-season stats, with several defensemen yielding more shot attempts for than against, although differences weren’t substantial. Their takeaway-giveaway stats, while initially concerning, align with average NHL figures. High danger scoring chances against were comparable to other strong defensive teams. The goal differential highlighted the defense’s overall effectiveness, albeit with some weaknesses in the lower ranges.
**Pairing Analysis**
Winnipeg’s top and third defensive pairings excelled in shot statistics (Corsi/Fenwick) and expected goals, while the second pairing struggled. Takeaway-Giveaway numbers were generally poor across the league, with notable exceptions. High danger scoring chances varied, with the third pairing showing elite levels. Actual goal differential was strong, with the top pairing (Morrissey and DeMelo) standing out. The expected goal differential was less favorable for the second pairing and Logan Stanley.
**Individual Player Reviews**
1. **Josh Morrissey**: The top defenseman had an excellent offensive season, ranking 8th in scoring among NHL defensemen. His defensive game was solid but had some high danger chances against. He maintained positive expected goal stats with all partners, indicating strong overall performance.
2. **Dylan DeMelo**: The top right-handed defenseman had a career season with solid point totals and excellent goal differential. Despite a poor takeaway-giveaway ratio, he limited high danger chances effectively.
3. **Brenden Dillon**: Known for his physical play, Dillon led the team in penalty minutes. His advanced stats were poor, but he showed better performance with different partners. Re-signing seems uncertain due to cap space and other priorities.
4. **Neal Pionk**: Despite decent basic stats, Pionk’s advanced metrics were unfavorable, placing him near the bottom in several categories. His performance suggests a need for improvement in the second pairing.
5. **Dylan Samberg**: In sheltered minutes, Samberg showed strong advanced stats and solid defensive play, although his physicality declined. His potential as a higher-pairing defenseman remains.
6. **Nate Schmidt**: Schmidt’s advanced stats were surprisingly good, but his lack of offensive contribution and high salary make his future with the team uncertain.
7. **Colin Miller**: Limited data from his time with Winnipeg shows poor performance, but a strong playoff game suggests potential as a depth defender.
8. **Logan Stanley**: Stanley’s advanced stats were weak, but his physical presence and ability to draw penalties add some value. His future might hinge on cap considerations and roster depth.
**Conclusion**
The Jets’ priority should be upgrading the second right defense slot, which may be challenging. Alternatives include improving the second left defense spot and enhancing the third pairing. With only two defensemen secured (Morrissey and Samberg), the front office has significant work ahead to bolster the blue line and maintain competitiveness.
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