In the realm of baseball, where the history spans about 150 years, the role of a relief pitcher is a relatively recent addition. Despite the increasing use of bullpens, elite relievers find themselves underrepresented in the Hall of Fame, a trend that continues with only eight such players enshrined in the current voting cycle. Billy Wagner’s recent near miss for Hall of Fame induction sheds light on the challenges faced by relief pitchers, especially when compared to their starting pitcher counterparts.
Wagner’s candidacy has been a subject of intense debate, having fallen just five votes short of election in 2024. Over the years, he steadily gained support, climbing from 10% in 2016 to an impressive 68% last year. However, despite tracking around 80% during the current voting cycle, uncertainties persisted regarding whether he would surpass the crucial 75% threshold required for induction. Wagner’s case is built on his remarkable achievements as one of the most dominant relievers in the history of the game.
Statistically, Wagner boasts the highest strikeout rate for any pitcher with at least 900 innings and holds the lowest opponent batting average (.187 BA) in MLB history within the same innings threshold. His career, albeit limited in innings, places him among the game’s elite, further emphasized by his sixth-most saves all-time (422). His impact on the game is undeniable, making a compelling argument for his inclusion in the Hall of Fame.
Interestingly, Wagner’s story intertwines with that of Joe Nathan, another formidable closer whose Hall of Fame candidacy faced an abrupt end in 2022. Nathan, despite impressive career achievements, received only 4.3% of votes and fell off the ballot due to a crowded year with high-profile players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens in their final year of eligibility.
The JAWS metric, designed by Jay Jaffe, provides a nuanced perspective on the worthiness of Hall of Fame candidates. In the realm of relievers, where high-leverage situations dominate, Wagner ranks sixth, with Nathan closely behind in seventh place. Nathan’s overall career achievements, including six All-Star selections, top-five finishes in Cy Young voting, and a sixth position in win probability added among relief pitchers, make a compelling case for reconsideration.
Despite their statistical prowess, some writers have cited Wagner and Nathan’s poor playoff performances as a reason for withholding votes. While their playoff statistics may not be stellar, critics argue that a small sample size should not overshadow their overall contributions to the game.
Joe Nathan, like Wagner, finds himself part of the underrepresented group of great relievers seeking recognition in the Hall of Fame. Hindered by a crowded ballot, Nathan’s fate now rests on a future review by the Eras Committee, with the next evaluation scheduled for December 2025 for potential induction in the Class of 2026. The debate over relief pitchers’ place in Cooperstown continues, with both Wagner and Nathan emblematic of the challenges faced by closers seeking baseball immortality.
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