Could the Phillies assemble a trade offer for Juan Soto?
What historical examples do we have of deals between the Padres and Phillies?
It all begins with a simple, innocuous question.
Soon enough, more and more people, including those within the industry, start discussing the same topic. Considering the expected long-term contract for Soto and other factors, there’s a genuine chance that San Diego might trade him this offseason. While it’s not impossible for the Padres to agree to a substantial extension with Soto, they should seriously contemplate trading him if that doesn’t happen.
Rumors begin to circulate that actual teams are inquiring about what it would take to make such a trade. The New York Yankees have already initiated preliminary talks with the Padres regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto, according to league sources, though discussions have not progressed beyond an initial check-in.
Now, a full-fledged rumor is circulating and will likely persist throughout the offseason, unless there’s a definitive statement from the general managers or team owners that no deal will happen. But where’s the fun in that?
What would the package for Juan Soto look like?
Rojas & Abel + more?
I really don’t know.
— The Good Phight (@TheGoodPhight) October 30, 2023
Devising a trade for a player can be a challenging task. Understanding the priorities of the involved teams is nearly impossible. In the case of the Phillies, Juan Soto meets several criteria that became evident during the NLCS:
- Strong contact skills
- Ability to get on base
- Low strikeout rate
- Power to hit home runs
The reasons for the Phillies to acquire Soto are apparent, but what would motivate San Diego? The fear of losing him for nothing? Financial constraints due to arbitration costs? In Soto’s final contractual season with the Padres, they should not shy away from pursuing a championship and trading him, but they may hesitate, leading us back to the Phillies. If they are a potential trade partner, can they put together a compelling trade package?
One might assume that acquiring arguably the most complete hitter in the game would necessitate parting with the organization’s top prospect, Andrew Painter. While his history of Tommy John surgery might not dissuade teams from pursuing him, it could add a wrinkle to the deal. To sweeten the deal, the team might request another pitcher, just to be sure. The question is, would that additional arm have to be the next best prospect, Mick Abel, or could they consider someone from the next tier down, like Griff McGarry? While McGarry may pose some risk as a starter, there’s potential for him to become a high-impact reliever with his impressive arsenal. Is he always in control? Maybe not, but the Phillies might prefer to part with him and retain Abel, who appears to be a more reliable starting pitcher at this point than McGarry.
So, now the Padres would receive two pitchers, Painter and McGarry. Should the Phillies offer more than that? Do they need to offer more?
Trading someone like Johan Rojas would likely be met with some hesitation, although not as much from the Phillies as from the Padres. Rojas is a solid player, excelling defensively but needing improvement at the plate. This deficiency was evident during the postseason when he struggled at bat. Whether the drop-off from Rojas to Cristian Pache in terms of defense would be offset by the upgrade in plate appearances is up for debate. With more seasoning in the minor leagues, Rojas could become a bottom-of-the-order hitter who can make a difference defensively.
Is this something San Diego would be interested in right now? They already have Trent Grisham in center field, an above-average defender, but adding Rojas to a Grisham-Fernando Tatis, Jr. outfield would create a fortress against flyballs. However, offensively, the shift from what Soto offers to what Rojas offers is substantial, possibly requiring more than just Rojas.
So, the Phillies are offering Painter, McGarry, and Rojas. Is that sufficient?
This is why making a trade for someone like Juan Soto is so complex. If the Phillies were overflowing with minor league talent like the Orioles or Rays, trading for Soto would be straightforward. However, given their current position near the top of the National League hierarchy, they should aim to acquire someone like Soto to push them to the next level. Yet, parting with prospects like Painter or Rojas could pose challenges for future team-building endeavors. If the Phillies are willing to accept the consequences that come with spending money, they should be prepared to move past any luxury tax penalties.
When it comes to players alone in terms of equal trade value for Juan Soto, it might be difficult to come up with enough talent to balance the trade. If discussions between the two teams intensify, it will be intriguing to see which names are floated. Whoever it may be, it will be painful to part with them. This is just another aspect to keep an eye on during this offseason.
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